So, who's winning the Swedish election? It's complicated

The polls say the Social Democrats are the biggest party by miles. So they’re going to win, right? No, that doesn’t necessarily follow.

But they’re the biggest party? Yes, but they’re under 30 percent, so they’d have to work with some combination of the Left Party, the Green Party and the Centre Party. And the combined support for the right-wing parties isn’t far off the combined support for the lefties.

OK, so we have two solid coalitions? So a bit like a two-party system anyway? Yeah, until they start flirting heavily with the other side.

What do you mean, flirting? Well Ebba Busch, leader of the Christian Democrats (one of the four right-wing parties) has been dropping heavy hints that she’d be open to doing deals with the Social Democrats after the elections, even though she’s really quite right wing. And Magdalena Andersson, the Social Democrat leader, has been fluttering her eyelashes right back at Ebba.

But the Centre Party are properly in the left bloc, so they must be socialism light? Absolutely not: they’ve got the most right-wing economic policy of the lot. They just love labour immigration and can’t stand the Sweden Democrats. They don’t like the Left Party either.

Ah yes, weren’t the Left Party communists? Be quiet, we don’t talk about that. Ancient history.

And didn’t they send supportive letters to child murderers in Israeli jails? You’re being awkward now. They didn’t know they were child murderers.

OK, but they are pretty left wing? Yep.

As are the Greens? Well, as their name suggests, they’re into tackling climate change and things. But yes, they’re also into special taxes for billionaires.

And the Centre Party are pretty right wing, yet they’re on the same side? I can’t make this add up. Nobody else can either.

You haven’t said what the Social Democrats stand for. Haven’t I? Sorry, my bad.

Well? Look, they’re sort-of centre left. But the Social Democrats think they are far more important than that. They’re the ‘state-bearing’ party. Their destiny is to rule.

Last four years must have been tough, then? You’d better believe it. They’re hoping for order to be restored next Sunday.

OK, so what about the other side? Well, they’re the Tidö Parties.

What’s a Tidö? Tidö Slott. It’s a stately home. You don’t need to know.

OK, so the Tidö parties are the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Liberals and Christian Democrats. Right. Led (sort of), by the Moderates, whose leader is Ulf Kristersson, the current Prime Minister.

The Moderates - that sounds middle-of-the-road? Well, actually they’re sort-of right wing too. Liberal-conservative, according to themselves.

They’re liberal and conservative? Yep, that’s a thing. They believe in climate science and LGBTQ rights and the EU project but also in low taxes, tough criminal policies. Strong on defence, very pro-Ukrainian and steadfast against Russian aggression.

What about the Sweden Democrats – didn't they grow out of a neo-Nazi party? Yeah, but we don’t talk about that, and neither should you. Just as we studiously ignore their strangely frequent contacts with dodgy Russians.

Dodgy Russians? Must be awkward for the Moderates, being against Russian aggression? Didn’t you hear me? We don’t talk about that.

The neo-Nazi background must be a problem too? Look, the Sweden Democrats are reformed. Practically centre-right these days. Move on.

And the Sweden Democrats are in the government? No, they have a confidence-and-supply agreement with the government.

A what? They support the government in confidence votes, and negotiate on other policy areas.

So what does that mean? That nothing happens without their say-so. They also have officials in the government offices, just no ministers.

So Ulf is prime minister, but Jimmie calls the shots? Your words, not mine.

And the Liberals are left wing, right? No they’re centre-right and these days are BFFs with the Sweden Democrats, mostly in an effort to borrow enough votes to stay in parliament.

But didn’t Jimmie Åkesson say that Liberals were his ideological opponents? You’re overthinking this.

So who’s going to win? It’s nail-bitingly close. There may be a lot of talmansrundor.

Talmansrundor? Where the speaker tries to flush out a majority, with the help of cake.

And if they still can’t agree? Then it’s time for extraval and we do it all over again.

God no, how can I prevent this? Vote for a strong government!